When people do a simulation of the result of Proportional Representation, such is rather misleading…. They look at how people vote now; not how they would vote if they knew we didn’t have First-Past-the-Post.
Now, without PR, someone thinks, oh, I can’t vote UKIP because then Tories will get less support and this seat will fall to Labour. Or they think, don’t vote Greens or LibDems, because Labour will fall to Tories. The electorate know that First Past The Post favours two parties only.
If there was PR, lots of Eurosceptics would suddenly vote UKIP, even more MPs move over like Carswell did. It would surge, maybe take a third of Tory support maybe some Labour to, giving purple about quarter of the House of Commons; some real clout in debates and law making. I reckon Tories and UKIP would have half the House between them.
Greens would take a bite out of Labour, and the Socialist Workers Party would grow, knocking at least about 6% off Labour, meaning Labour would also hold a quarter.
LibDems would snap up an unknown amount of all the centrist swing votes. Tories and Labour would worry less about the centre ground they focus on now. Labour would be very Corbynist while Tories would be more Thatcherite, closer to UKIP.
However, no party would dominate. A coalition could be anything. The result wouldn’t be so much down to votes but what deal was made. The government would could swing either way, probably dependent on who LibDems side with. Maybe a left-wing bloc, maybe a right-wing bloc, but both limited in law-making powers by the centrist legislature.
Parliament would be an equal mix of right and left every year, with both sides less centrist than today, making for more lively debate in the House.
However, as the left and right would be similar in number, when it would come to voting, the government of the day would have trouble passing laws, or only very centrist laws, and hence be censored.
The end result may not be that different to now with the swing to Labour then to Tory, except the executive would be less centrist.
(Articles reflect the views of the author, and not necessarily those of Luke Nash-Jones, The Red Pill Factory, or Make Britain Great Again.)